This steep drop in stocks prompted speculation among news outlets of an impending recession. Interest in the term skyrocketed as the Monday sell-off was underway.

To understand if the US is headed toward a recession, it’s best to understand the term. The word is often used, but what qualifies as a recession?

A recession is defined as “two consecutive quarters of negative growth.” This growth is usually measured by GDP. Since the economy grew by 2.3% during Q4 2024, we won’t know the extent of a possible contraction until the end of March 2025. This contraction would have to continue for another three months for the US to be in a recession.

Although this is the definition of a recession, is there a better way to define it? The sentiment during President Biden’s term in office was that while the US may not have been in a recession on paper, rising prices due to inflation and a stagnant job market made the electorate feel the opposite of what the economists and analysts were saying.

In a strange way, the people and the experts were both right.

The US economy is growing, but this does not negate the effect of inflation on the average consumer, or the contraction in some parts of the economy while other parts expand.

For example, below is a list of the ten fastest-declining occupations in the US. The numbers represent the percentage of jobs lost between 2022 and 2023.

Now take a look at the 30 fastest-growing occupations and their percentage increases over the same period.

If you are unfortunately in a declining occupation, you are living in a recession. If you are in an expanding occupation, the economy is doing well. To take it a step further, if you are in a region whose economy has long depended on one of the declining occupations, you and your environment are in a full economic downturn. If you are in a region adding several expanding occupations at once, you are in an economic boom. But, to be clear, this does not consider the cost of living and taxes in the respective regions where these jobs are hiring and firing.

As economies evolve, there will be “winners and losers.” I examined this in the master’s thesis on the effect of NAFTA on auto parts manufacturing jobs in the US. While the US saw overall gains after NAFTA was signed, my hometown of Flint, Michigan was left in ruins. This was partly due to NAFTA, but advances in technology and transportation had already conspired to shutter most factories. The economy will have highs and lows and will shift accordingly. To repeat a quote from Warren Buffett, “For 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” So, don’t count the US out, and, to modify a quote from economist Thomas Sowell, modern workers must equip “themselves “with skills that others are willing to pay for.”

The US labor market was recently described as "low-hire, low-fire" (Yahoo), meaning that while unemployment is low, there are few new job openings per individual unemployed.

It’s the “meh” of employment records. The troubled friend who replies to “How are you?” with “Things could be worse.”

Unemployment is at 4.1%—virtually unchanged from recent months—but this is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it's a sign of stability, and on the other, it's a possible canary in the coal mine, portending a cooled economy, with little risk taken by employers and employees alike.

While the healthcare and government sectors continue to add jobs, this is not the best metric for measuring the economy's overall health. The labor force participation rate still trails behind pre-pandemic levels (US Chamber), and the forthcoming Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy might soon demonstrate the overall precarity of the US labor market. The market may soon be flooded with former government workers at a time when few in the private sector are hiring.

With a new administration on the horizon, the best way to describe the market today is to say it is at a crossroads. The stock market is betting heavily on a returning President Trump, which will directly impact capital raising and loan disbursement for new projects and start-ups. Consumer confidence rose in November, and Black Friday spending grew 10%, mainly due to online sales. Perhaps these are signs of a revival of the dynamism of yesteryear and the death of "day-to-day." Time will tell.

In the end, Americans are adapting, as always, to new norms. In the great words of Warren Buffet, “For 240 years, it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” Let’s see what the new year has in store.

-Myron

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Let's take a look at a few simple things you can do to improve your writing. You may not become the next Hemingway, but you will be well on your "way" to becoming a better writer.

SOME BACKGROUND

Writing is my first love. I studied several subjects at university, including biology, music theory, and economic policy. While pursuing a career in each was tempting, I decided to become a writer in the end.

Several benefits come from practicing writing. It helps with learning and clarity in thinking, and can even improve your mood. There are many approaches to writing. I will share a few of mine, but be sure to research additional methods and tools.

MY PROCESS

When I settled on English as my major at university, one of my required courses was a composition class that focused on the writing process. Common professors discussed in class included Patricia Bizzell, professor of English Emerita from College of the Holy Cross, and American journalist and English professor, the late Donald Murray. I encourage the more curious among you to research their works.

We were tasked with writing our process on the board and explaining it to our classmates on the first day. Unsure of my approach to writing at the time, I simply wrote "Just write" and explained how my process involves just writing out my thoughts and building around that.

I later recognized that a large part of my writing process involved having a precise title. If I could surmise in a few words what I wanted to convey, everything else would flow from there. In addition, if I ever got off track, the title would force me back on topic. This also greatly improved my ability to write good marketing copy.

I then came up with a mnemonic to help me remember what to do before final publication. It is "OS-PC," which reminds me of "operating system" and "personal computer" and makes it simple to remember my final writing process. The letters stand for "Omissions, Spelling, Punctuation, and Come Back Later." The idea is to re-read your text and look for omitted words (our brain will often tell us it sees articles and prepositions that are not there). Next, check for spelling and punctuation mistakes. Last, set the text aside, come back after it is out of your mind, and do the first three steps again. You may not catch every mistake, but this will help you greatly reduce them.

TOOLS AT YOUR DISPOSAL

A great boon to my writing has been a couple of tools that have become common. First is Grammarly, which, although it can give suggestions that do not make for the best style choices (such as heavy adverb use), still helps you catch basic mistakes.

The second is Hemingway Editor. This is an online tool that helps you keep your sentences concise with clear language. I give it high praise.

Check out these tools and consider using the above methods. With these, you can start your writing journey today.

Happy writing!

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Dismay abounds in France after recent national and European elections.

• A tough road lies ahead, but there is great promise.

France is in a pickle, but there is potential for good.

Recent elections have seen a growing number of citizens voting for extremist candidates across the political spectrum. Although there is room for concern, the clamor of hostile rhetoric is drowning out all of the good that’s going on in France.

Since a lot of the new support for unconventional parties and candidates is coming from citizens with genuine economic concerns, and since economics is an area in which I have some experience, I would like to highlight a few positive trends that demonstrate that France is in a better position than most think. However, how the country’s politicians act on these trends will make all the difference.

RECENT LOWS IN UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment was reported at 7.5% in May. This is after dropping to as low as 7.1% at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, which was the lowest it has been in 40 years.

Furthermore, there has been a steady decline in the rate of unemployment spanning two presidencies. The unemployment rate has decreased by 2.7 points over the past ten years. The government’s goal is to get unemployment to 5% by 2027. This will be a challenge, but a few factors could help.

THE ROLE OF STARTUPS

It would be disingenuous to call France a “Startup Nation,” as President Macron predicted ahead of his election in 2017. Nonetheless, the role of startups cannot be underplayed.

First, defining a startup is a bit tricky. It was once defined as a scalable business created to address a specific problem with a new product. It is most often associated with tech because most new products post the Industrial Age are digital. Today, it is not uncommon to hear “startup” used for any new business.

In light of the above, France has shown great promise in starting new businesses and bringing new, innovative products to the international market. Much of this is thanks to the next positive trend: direct investment.

FRANCE: A SAFE BET

My motivation for this week’s newsletter came from a LinkedIn post today from the Financial Times saying “French markets have rallied as investors predict a hung parliament.”

France has seen record investment by other countries and international businesses. Despite a focus on the European Union, France’s number one investor is the United States, with the UK coming in second. In fact, the number of jobs produced from US investment is more than that of the UK and the third highest investor, Germany, combined. In addition, France remains the most attractive country for industrial investment in Europe.

Working backward from this newsletter’s three topics, investments lead to new businesses that directly impact employment levels. On paper, there has never been a better time to start a business in France. This is something worth highlighting and celebrating.

AFTERWORD

None of the above negates the real economic problems people face in France today. Rather, it can inform those who hope for a better tomorrow, irrespective of their current situation.

Changing jobs is difficult. Starting a business is even more difficult. In the end, we can choose to be negative about it, or positive. The choice is ours.

Vive la France !

Myron Manns

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HOW WE READ MATTERS AS MUCH AS WHAT WE READ

Truth be told, we all read often. With social media, newsletters, working from a computer, and text messaging, we consume the written word, perhaps, more than ever. Moreover, as stated in a previous newsletter, there are numerous benefits to reading. This includes less stress, and improved sleep, memories, and relationships. 

So, if we’re reading more, why might it not seem like we’re enjoying all the benefits? 

As stated in a different newsletter, there are pros but also cons to social media use. It stands to reason that if reading can be beneficial, but using social media can be detrimental, then it matters not only what we read, but how we read it. 

THE BENEFITS OF PUTTING DOWN THE PHONE AND PICKING UP A BOOK

Famed author Harlan Coben, (whose most famous character is named Myron ) recently spoke about the benefits of reading on the BBC. In a short clip on Instagram, Coben mentions the reduction of stress, increased empathy, and improved mental health. This is just from reading five minutes a day. 

The catch? Coben prefaced that when he’s discussing these benefits, he’s excluding scrolling on our phones. It appears that the benefits are tied to how we consume text and the subject matter. This does not mean having to only read from a book instead of electronic sources. Rather, the type of text, e.g. a novel or a social media post, can either confer benefits, or negative effects.  

Is there a book you’ve been interested in reading, or a subject you’ve been interested in learning? Just five minutes a day of reading these could change your mood for the better. Get started today!

See you next week!
Myron Manns

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Two positive effects from reading.

POSITIVE  EFFECT #1: TEN BENEFITS OF READING FICTION

I will admit that have not been the biggest fan of fiction. And I regret this. There is an air of superiority tied to reading official reports, studies, news articles, and history books, but there is so much to gain from reading fiction!

While I “prefer” nonfiction, my favorite book remains Fitzgerald’s Great Gatsby. What I enjoy most about it is its believability. It’s the classic tale of love lost and the pursuit of wealth. It’s so believable that, in some ways, it’s better than a true story. Fiction expands the mind on real topics in a way that non-fiction does not.

I found a great list of reasons why we should read fiction. Check out this post from the Teddy Book blog and start thinking about cozying up with a good book!

Read the list here.

POSITIVE EFFECT #2: LEARNING A LANGUAGE CHANGES THE BRAIN

Ai is all the rave right now. In particular, there is much noise about the real-time translation capabilities of Chat-GPT 4o. While I will forever herald the benefits of advances in technology, there are things that such advances can never do. In this case, while real-time translation is great for all the languages we don’t know, it should not deter us from learning another language.

There are health benefits that we only gain from language learning. Learning a new language, even later in life, has been shown to improve memory, creativity, and communication skills. 

Cambridge.org has a great article on the benefits of language learning, and there are several others that detail the positive impact. Take a look at the Cambridge article here.

-Myron

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POSITIVE TREND #1: THE MOST IN-DEMAND SKILLS

The World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs 2023 report predicts analytical thinking, creative thinking, and AI and big data as the most in-demand skills by 2027.

Job displacement is nothing new. Be it technology, trade, or just disinterest, the market can never guarantee that a certain skill in use today will be useful tomorrow. By the same token, we cannot predict with total accuracy which skills will be the most in demand, but current trends point to the skills listed in the graph below.

This is useful for anyone considering a change of career, but I encourage the reader to do further research before making a decision.

Read the full article from WEF here.
Watch a brief video on LinkedIn here.

POSITIVE TREND #2: FOOD INFLATION ON THE DECLINE

This next trend affects your wallet and your stomach (and by extension, your health). The OECD reported a decrease in food inflation in February. The report was last updated last week on April 8th. This is very good news for those living on fixed incomes.

I need to stress that although the rate of inflation for food is decreasing, it does not suggest that the price of food itself is going down. Nonetheless, this information can help predict the cost of food in the coming months.

Get access to the full report here.

-Myron

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Economist Thomas Sowell once gave a great example of the mistakes made when interpreting data. He mentions a time when median household income decreased while per capita income increased. If the latter is true, how do we explain that households are making less while everyone is making more?

The answer is simple. We have to look at demographic data over the same period. According to census data, several households went from two or more adults living under the same roof to two or fewer. This often happens when former roommates earn enough to afford their own homes, leading to lower “household” income.

What is often demonstrated in data only reveals part of what is happening. We need more data to understand why it is happening, and what that could mean for the future. Keep this in mind for the following positive trend.

POSITIVE TREND: JOB GROWTH “ZOOMS” IN MARCH

I watch market growth to report positive trends in the newsletter. I was happy to see that job growth had a swift increase in March when I saw the following article from CNBC, titled “Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%.”

This is, on the face of it, good news, but we need to keep two things in mind.

First, by sector: Health care led with 72,000 new jobs, followed by government (71,000), leisure and hospitality (49,000), and construction (39,000). The increase in government positions is a double-edged sword. It could mean that the positions are a reflection of a growing market with more taxable income leading to more positions in government, but it could also reflect a failing market, with the government borrowing to spend on jobs in hopes of stimulating the market.

Second, when looking at job growth over the past two years, it could be considered disingenuous to use the title “Job growth zoomed in March.” Take a look at the graph included in the article.

Indeed, there is an increase between February and March. Whether this increase merits the use of the word “zoom” is debatable.

I always stress to readers to ask more questions when presented with data. We can know the truth behind things, but we sometimes need to digger a little deeper to find it.

economicstrendsjobs

THE BENEFIT TO STAYING FIT: HOW WEIGHT TRAINING HELPS YOU STAY YOUNG

Is 75 the new 25? It may seem like a bit of a stretch, but there is evidence that strength training preserves neural innervation (supplying energy to nerves). This means lifting weights helps maintain the nerve connections between the brain and muscles.

The study involved 42 men divided into four groups by age, type of exercise, and level of exercise. The older group’s average age was almost 75 years old, and the younger group’s average age was 25 years old. They discovered that the percentage of atrophic muscle fibers was similar in the 75-year-olds as in the 25-year-olds, leading some to suggest that “our musculoskeletal system is modifiable until the day we die.”

Get more data from the study here.

POSITIVE IMPACT: THE LINK BETWEEN SPIRITUALITY AND LONGEVITY

It is often said that all religions are similar. Further study shows that while many core aspects are alike, most religions are superficially similar yet profoundly different.

Nonetheless, there is one thing held in common that might have been hitherto overlooked. There is a link between spirituality or religious practice and longevity. Around 75% of studies on the subject demonstrate correlation.

Results include “higher levels of spirituality/religiosity associated with lower risk of mortality,” with religious service attendance in particular being associated with a “lower mortality from death from despair,” i.e. death related to drugs, alcohol, and suicide.

Read the full article “Exploring the Spirituality-Longevity Link” on Substack here.

-Myron

healthwell-beinglongevityfitness

POSITIVE TREND: PEOPLE WANT GOOD NEWS

If it seems like the only news today is bad news, there might be a simple explanation. Readers tend to react more to negative news. Social psychologists call this a “negativity bias.” Most interesting is that although we tend to interact more with negative news, there is a growing trend toward searching out good news.

A recent study titled “The Increasing Viability of Good News” by university professors Stuart Soroka and Yanna Krupnikov suggests that “the prevalence of positive news is likely to increase.” This is based on data showing that readers prefer “novel” approaches to the news that cater to their preferences. Among these preferences are stories that showcase positive news.

This is our mission at Trillion Watts Publishing: to bring you the good news that you’re looking for, but which may be hard to find.

Read an article from Vox with the professors of the study here. 
And find the study itself here.

POSITIVE ACTS: POSITIVE WORK CULTURES ARE MORE PRODUCTIVE

This one might seem like a no-brainer, but then we have to ask ourselves, “Why is there so much negativity in the workplace?”

Many work well under pressure. But there are costs. A Harvard Business Review article says it best. 

Although there’s an assumption that stress and pressure push employees to perform more, better, and faster, what cutthroat organizations fail to recognize is the hidden costs incurred.

First, healthcare expenditures at high-pressure companies are nearly 50% greater than at other organizations. The American Psychological Association estimates that more than $500 billion is siphoned off from the U.S. economy because of workplace stress, and 550 million workdays are lost each year due to stress on the job. Sixty percent to 80% of workplace accidents are attributed to stress, and it’s estimated that more than 80% of doctor visits are due to stress. Workplace stress has been linked to health problems ranging from metabolic syndrome to cardiovascular disease and mortality.

Disengagement and turnover are listed as the second and third major costs associated with workplace stress after health. 

So, that’s a lot of bad. What’s some of the good?

A Forbes article details three major advantages of positivity at work. A positive work culture:

1. Encourages Happier Employees

2. Promotes Collaboration, and

3. Inspires Creativity

All three come together to promote workplace productivity.

The Harvard Business Review article is behind a paywall, but most have access to three free articles. Give it a shot and read the full article here. 
Read details of the Forbes article here.

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POSITIVE ACTION: HOW TO DEAL WITH PROCRASTINATION

Many of us know what it’s like to put something off until tomorrow, i.e. to procrastinate. In fact, the word procrastinare in Latin means “for tomorrow.”

I stumbled upon a great thread on X recently that gives several pointers on how to deal with procrastination by doing short, simple tasks. Take a look and try applying some of the techniques to everyday work or side projects you’ve always wanted to start!

Read the thread here.

POSITIVE TREND: FINDING YOUR DREAM JOB MAY NO LONGER REQUIRE A DEGREE

An economist for the job website Indeed, Cory Stahle, recently sat with Yahoo Finance to discuss trends in hiring requirements in the US. According to Indeed’s most recent reports, a few years ago, just over 20% of jobs listed required a bachelor’s degree or more, whereas today the number has fallen closer to 17%.

While this could indicate a shift in the types of jobs that are hiring in the market, further analysis revealed that employers are indeed (pun intended) removing education requirements and adding skills requirements. This could mean that getting the job you’ve always wanted could be less about advancing your degree and more about advancing your skillset, depending on the sector.

Watch a short clip of the report results here.

POSITIVE IMPACT: HOW TO HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON COWORKERS

Sometimes a little bit can go a long way. While not all people are comfortable sharing about themselves, a study by EY in 2018 suggests that employees have a greater 
sense of belonging when their coworkers show interest in knowing how they are doing.

An article on the study states: 
Surface-level as such check-ins may seem, taking the time to ask your teammates how they’re feeling, what they’re struggling with, or how their life is going outside of work goes a long way: The study found that more than a third of the survey respondents feel the greatest sense of belonging at work, as compared to other social environments, especially when their colleagues are invested in their personal and professional wellbeing.

Read more on the study here.

-Myron

POSITIVE TREND: THE AVERAGE AGE OF A SUCCESSFUL STARTUP FOUNDER IS 45

The word startup invokes thoughts of “young, dynamic” entrepreneurs—twenty-somethings who have new ideas that change entire sectors swiftly. Despite the image, research from the Harvard Business Review revealed that the Average Age of a Successful Startup Founder Is 45.

Work experience plays a crucial role in the future success of a business, and those with experience tend to try new ventures more often than once thought. Whatever that idea of yours is that’s been in the back of your mind, it’s never too late to act on it. Trillion Watts Publishing is the product of a forty-something, looking to publish stories from people of all ages.

Discover more here.

POSITIVE ACTION: BENEFIT FROM A VIRTUOUS CYCLE THROUGH EXERCISE

We all know about vicious cycles. Here’s a virtuous cycle to change your overall physical and mental health.

Dr. Rhonda Patrick has dedicated her practice of medicine to pursuing the keys to optimal health and longevity. In this short clip and post on X, learn how simple exercise leads to improved thinking and the motivation to do more!

Learn more here.

POSITIVE IMPACT: HOW PUBLISHING HELPED PROMOTE THE VOICES OF WOMEN

One of my favorite works I read at university was Virginia Woolf’s “A Room of One’s Own,” whence the phrase “A woman must have money and a room of her own if she is to write fiction” comes. 

I am grateful to have had the chance to read this extended essay. It examines the social impediments that prevent women writers from free expression. Much has changed since Woolf’s time, and we hope to publish the next generation of women authors at Trillion Watts Publishing.

POSITIVE TREND: THE TOP 10 FASTEST-GROWING INDUSTRIES

When asked the question, “How do you make something of yourself today?” economist Thomas Sowell replied, “Equip yourself with skills that people are willing to pay for.”

We sometimes get stuck in a rut, not knowing how to advance in our careers. A fresh start in a new career can be challenging, but rewarding. The best part is that after years of trying out different jobs, you get a good idea of what you do well and what you enjoy doing.

Check out some of the fastest-growing sectors to get an idea of what might enjoy doing that has the potential to pay well. Find the list here.

POSITIVE STORY: WE’RE BRINGING THE GOOD NEWS

Professors Stuart Soroka and Yanna Krupnikov published a study in 2021 titled “The Increasing Viability of Good News.” They discovered that although bad news is prevalent, there’s a growing market for good news.

“The nightly news has collapsed in popularity, newspapers from halfway around the world are as easy to access as local ones, and just about everyone has access to thousands of rival news outlets. For Soroka and Krupnikov, that suggests that the market for good news is getting stronger. Outlets can carve out niches offering less negatively valenced articles in a way they couldn’t 30 or 40 years ago.”

Vox has a great article on the subject of good and bad news, including the study’s findings here.

Positive act: How to improve your writing

Some weeks will feature positive thinking, and others will feature positive acts. Last week’s positive thinking showed how writing can improve health. This week’s positive act lists ways to get started writing today!

Journalist, educator, and Pulitzer winner Donald Murray is perhaps most famous for emphasizing that “writing is a process.” This is meant to keep up from focusing too much on the final product and to instead enjoy the discovery of exploring different approaches to unfinished works.

This reminds me of what I wrote on the board in my first composition course at university. Dr. Stephanie Roach of UM-Flint asked each of us to write about our process. I simply wrote: “Just write.”

We sometimes need to just write. Don’t overthink it. Start “just writing” today.

-Myron

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Gen Z is making reading books cool again. If you ever wondered why our co-founder Oaklin Mixon wanted to get into publication, it’s because, as usual, he was ahead of the curve.

POSITIVE THINKING: THE BENEFITS OF WRITING

A series of studies over 30 years demonstrate numerous health benefits from writing, including improved memory function, decreased symptomatology, and greater feelings of happiness, as well as the ability to “heal emotional wounds.”

Even more interesting is that this isn’t reserved for those of us who write professionally. Cognitive psychologist James Pennebaker observed that short-term, focused writing can “benefit anyone.”

…from persons who are dealing with terminal illness, victims of violent crime, or new college students struggling with the transition from high school…[t]hese brief expressive writing episodes have led participants to report feeling happier and less negative than prior to their writing experience, and having fewer symptoms of depression and anxiety.

Starting to write can be the hardest part. Next week’s post will include ways to get you started.

Read more on the benefits of writing from Pennebaker and others here.

-Myron

The good, the bad, and the ugly – A summary of the big three in France’s economy: Unemployment, retirement, and inflation

In honor of “weekly strike day” (I’m kidding. All love, France), I thought I would provide a few statistics to encourage, forewarn and inform. 

First, let’s take a look at the good: Unemployment. Unemployment in France has been on a steady decline since its recent peak of 8.8 percent in the third quarter of 2020.^[1] The latest numbers from the fourth quarter of 2022 reveal current rates at 7.0 percent. This is encouraging considering that 6.9 percent from the first quarter of 2008 is the lowest rate of unemployment in France in the past 20 years. 

Next, let’s look at bad: Retirement. As strikes surrounding reforms continue, I mentioned in my last post that the current average age of retirement in France is 64.5. Reforms from 62 to 64 will almost certainly push back the average age by at least two years. Compounding the issue is the reduction in the number of workers per retiree from 1.8 in 2009 to 1.6 in 2020,^[2] which is foreboding since birth rates continue to decline and life expectancy continues to increase (with a slight dip in 2020 due to the pandemic).^[3] [4]

Last, the ugly: Inflation. Official numbers show a sharp increase of 3.6 percent between 2021 and 2022, peaking at 5.2 percent.^[5] Some estimates are as high as 7.2 percent.^[6] This is due in part to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine but is related to the drop in unemployment. Inflation normally has an inverse relationship with unemployment. When inflation rises, unemployment drops. We may be witnessing what is known as demand-pull inflation, as the demand for goods or services rises faster than the supply. Time will tell. 

I hesitate to give opinions or advice on any of the above subjects. These are simply data points for the reader to review for informed decisions. Be informed and be encouraged. – M

^[1] https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4805248#tableau-chomage-g1-fr

^[2] https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2415121#tableau-figure1

^[3] https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2381380#tableau-figure1

^[4] https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2416631#tableau-figure1

^[5] https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/2122401#tableau-figure1

^[6] https://ycharts.com/indicators/france_inflation_rate

My initial questions were, “Why is the increase limited to two years, and not more or less?” and, “What are the alternative options?” I think life expectancy, birth rate, and tax revenue projections are of interest, but I acknowledge that I am asking too much of the population and politicians to provide these comprehensive data, so I digress.

However, there’s another, simpler set of data that could prove interesting: the average age of retirement in Europe. This idea came to me after two friends expressed their dismay at the “ungrateful French” for not being willing to work longer. One of them, to my surprise, is a friend from the French working class. The other, an American, surprised me as well, considering he often praises what he perceives as the “superiority” of the French social system. Hearing their complaints, I was curious to know when the rest of the world retires and if the French were being unreasonable in maintaining their current retirement age.

I usually avoid comparing systems. It risks comparing apples to oranges. The French system is unique, as are the systems of each nation. Retirement programs elsewhere don’t directly apply to the unique French economy and society. Nonetheless, I did some digging and came across the following graph on Twitter. It was created by the Renaissance party of France, which supports French President Emmanuel Macron and retirement reform. 

The graphic initially appeared noteworthy, suggesting that a two-year increase in France’s retirement age would still result in a lower age compared to other European countries. Upon closer examination, I noticed an inconsistency. The retirement ages in the other countries appeared to be significantly higher than I would have assumed.

This piqued my curiosity, so I sought more information. I thought about it, and considered researching the difference between the age when individuals “can” retire and the average age when they “actually” retire. These can differ substantially. I found an article from Euronews that provided a clearer understanding of the situation. The graphic, it turned out, was comparing the early retirement age in France (62 years) with actual retirement ages in several countries. This was true for Austria, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Spain, and Switzerland. In these countries, the early retirement age was lower than the graphic suggested.

In addition, the average retirement age in France today is not 62, as the graphic implies. It is actually 64.5 years. Additionally, the true retirement ages in Belgium, Italy, and Portugal are lower than the numbers displayed in the graphic. The data provided by Euronews appears to be either from 2020 or the most recent available data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In contrast, the Renaissance graphic lacks a specific source. I conclude that it cannot be trusted as a valuable source. 

My research here touches on the importance of checking sources and assumptions when discussing political topics. We can deceive ourselves or be deceived by others about the real numbers. 

#retraites #retirement #france #pensions 

Pourquoi ? C’est une bonne question. En fait, il y a pas mal de publicités en France aujourd’hui créées par les agences françaises pour des marques françaises qui sont quand même faites en anglais. Je comprends si l’idée est de faire le développement d’une entreprise française dans les marchés hors de France. Dans le cas de Jules, 85 % de leurs magasins sont en France, donc une grande partie de leur développement pourrait prendre place à l’étranger. Bien que cela puisse être leur motivation à faire des pubs en anglais, je pense que la raison est plus simple.

L’anglais est devenu à la mode.

Cette phrase-là semble peut-être comme un jeu de mots parce que Jules est une marque des vêtements, mais je veux dire tout simplement que l’anglais, surtout pour les jeunes, est cool aujourd’hui en France. Regardez cette pub de Wall Street English. Ceci explique tout.

C’est vraiment l’habitude des jeunes de parler français avec beaucoup d’anglicismes. Je me rappelle une fois où un Français qui ne parlait pas anglais cria « Oh my God » sans blague parce que cette phrase est dite souvent aux États-Unis. J’ai également regardé une vidéo en français où les personnages ont employé le mot « Anyways » plusieurs fois pour changer le sujet de leur conversation.

Lorsque l’on considère cette tendance, c’est logique ce qui se passe parmi les publicités en France. La plupart des publicités sont ciblées vers la démographique de 18-30 ans donc, on dirait les jeunes. Si les jeunes (notamment à Paris) parlent comme ça, il faut parler leur langue. Voilà le marketing à la française.

P.S. Au fait, la phrase « Men in Progress » n’est pas tout à fait claire en anglais

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Spoiler: There are two lessons

Henry Hazlitt might be among the most underrated economists of the 20^th century. This is likely because he wasn’t an economist at all; instead, he was a journalist who wrote about economic affairs. Austrian School devotees celebrate his work, particularly “Economics in One Lesson,” which Ayn Rand even praised. 

If you’re a Marxist and you’ve continued reading after I mentioned “Austrian School,” that’s impressive. If you’re still reading after “Ayn Rand,” you’re one of a kind! To be fair, those of the Chicago and Austrian schools can often shut down just as quickly once they see the name Marx. 

All jokes aside, the subtitle to Hazlitt’s book is “The Shortest and Surest Way to Understand Basic Economics.” I will say that no matter which economic thinker you follow, Hazlitt has reason to assert as much about his book. The principles he describes are natural properties of relationships between things. To deny them would be to deny cause and effect. 

The Lesson(s)

I always joke that there are, in fact, two lessons in “Economics in One Lesson.” Hazlitt explains that advocates of an economic policy might be quick to praise the intended change it brought about while failing to acknowledge the potential damage done. He then takes this one step further—the second lesson—explaining that the next mistake is recognizing immediate results without considering long-term effects before or even after a policy has taken effect. 

He has a point. Although we all fall victim to cum hoc and post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacies at times, it doesn’t take an Austrian economist to understand that changes in one area will bring about changes in another. Now, I am the first to say that economics is rarely zero-sum. It’s far more fluid in its ability to give gains to two persons in an exchange at the same time. Even if we think transactions—in the case of discretionary spending—as “losing” money to buy a product, if we are being honest, it’s instead that the retailer had an item that we considered more valuable than our money. By contrast, the retailer valued our money more than the item. 

Nonetheless, some things are more zero-sum. Take gas prices, for example. This directly impacts the amount of driving that many, especially people with low incomes, can do. You might not think much of the consequences of that. Still, for those who have to keep driving the same distance, say, truck drivers, that cost shifts onto the consumer, and this will not so much affect discretionary items as much as essential goods and services like groceries. 

I have a bleeding heart for the poor and working class, and, as always, they’re the ones who are most affected by rapidly rising gas prices, but I gather that few in our political class and in the media care to understand the true effect.